MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 20// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INCREASING CENTRAL ORGANIZATION AS CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE STARTED TO WRAP TIGHTER WHILE A WEAKLY DEFINED CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP. RADAR ANIMATION FROM TAIWAN ALSO REVEALS A MORE DEFINED SYSTEM AS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAVE DEEPENED AND HAVE STARTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP AND IS CLOSE TO RADAR POSITION FIXES FROM TAIWAN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN CONSISTENT AT 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER WHICH, A MID- LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN POLEWARD. AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ACROSS TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL CAUSE TY 10W TO WEAKEN QUICKLY. DUE TO THE QUICK TRACK OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RE-STRENGTHEN. INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AFTER TAU 24 WITH LANDFALL INTO CHINA, WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TY 10W, WITH FULL DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TY 10W WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEMI-STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CHINA THROUGH SOUTHERN KOREA AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ABSORPTION OF THE REMNANT LOW INTO THIS BOUNDARY BEYOND TAU 72. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN