MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A SMALL RAGGED EYE WITH DISTINCT RAIN BANDS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED OFF OF MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS). LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS TY 19W GRAZES TAIWAN. THEREFORE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TY 19W IS TRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 48, TY 19W WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND GRADUALLY TURN ONTO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER, FRICTION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 12, LAND INTERACTION WITH COASTAL CHINA, COOL SST, AND HIGH VWS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO CHINA AND TAIWAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF RE-CURVATURE BUT ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES INCREASE AFTER TAU 48, LEADING TO FAIR OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 19W WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). PRIOR TO TAU 120, TY 19W WILL HAVE COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED INTO A COLD-CORE LOW AS IT APPROACHES JAPAN. THE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH (360 NM) AT TAU 120 DUE TO TIMING OF CAPTURE IN THE WESTERLIES. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN