MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 230531Z 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS FALLS BETWEEN THE 230600Z PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND T6.0 (115 KTS), RESPECTIVELY. MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINAL. TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 24, TY 22W WILL GRADUALLY ROUND THE STR AXIS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, VWS WILL INCREASE, CAUSING THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN TO 45 KTS BY TAU 72. BY TAU 36, TY 22W WILL INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, ETT SHOULD BE COMPLETE. NUMERICAL MODELS STRONGLY AGREE WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY, REACHING ABOUT 240 NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST WEST OF, AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN, CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. BASED ON THE SPREAD AT TAU 72, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN