MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 23// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REGAINED A RAGGED 75NM EYE AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY DETERIORATES AFTER IT TRACKED ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON, PHILIPPINES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI WHICH LINED UP WELL WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 200515Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.9 TO T5.5 AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE REMNANT CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TYPHOON HAIMA IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF HONG KONG JUST BEFORE TAU 24. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM CONTENDS WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TY 25W WILL THEN RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT DRAGS MORE POLEWARD OVER THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN, DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN