MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (MEARI) WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. A 030600Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES RANGING FROM T2.0-2.5 (30 TO 45 KNOTS), AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS MEARI IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FEATURES POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, AS DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE TOWARD A RECURVATURE SCENARIO VERSUS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER SCENARIO. B. TS MEARI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY ON A MORE NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS THROUGH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO STR FEATURES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECASTED AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND VWS REMAINS LOW NEAR THE STR AXIS. C. AFTER TAU 72, ONCE PASSED THE STR AXIS, TS 26W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND GAIN FORWARD SPEED AS A DEEPENING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE WITHIN THE DEEP WESTERLIES. TS MEARI IS ALSO FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE LATER TAUS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH AND A TIGHT THICKNESS GRADIENT. GIVEN THE RECENT CONSOLIDATION OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ON A RECURVATURE SCENARIO, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.// NNNN NNNN