MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 35// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 28 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF RADAR FIXES AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS AN APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WIDE RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND IS CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM RODN THAT REPORTED GUSTS TO 80 KTS AT 290334Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ALSO FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. THE CYCLONE WILL PASS QUICKLY OVER HONSHU AND BE BACK OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF MISAWA AB SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BUT INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE TY 28W TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND TAU 24 AND COMPLETE BY TAU 48, BECOMING A STRONG COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN