MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING AND SUSTAINED CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE PRESENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AN 180552Z ATMS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 40KTS WINDS PRESENT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUT FROM A 180220Z ASCAT-B PASS, AS WELL AS MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (PGTW, 45 KTS) AND T2.5 (RJTD, 35 KTS), A 180600Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND A 180600Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 36 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SSTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TS HIGOS IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STR AND MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 NEAR YANGJIANG, CHINA. THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS AND WARM SSTS WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50KTS AT TAU 12 BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MAINLAND CHINA, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND AND RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO FULL DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINOR SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN