MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A 13NM RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 250455Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE THE 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RAGGED EYE IN MSI AND THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY PLACES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY, SET AT 95 KTS, IS BASED ON A STRENGTHENING TREND OBSERVED IN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. FURTHERMORE, CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) BY PGTW AND RJTD LEND HIGH CONFIENCE TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. TY 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TY 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE STR TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SPREAD INCREASING TO 95 NM BY TAU 48. OF NOTE, THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST SINCE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING LOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. AS TY 09W BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AS IT TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST CHINA. THROUGH TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS VWS VALUES DECREASE, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, COOLING SST (28-25 CELSIUS) AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. TY 09W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND TAU 48 WITH COMPLETION BY TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE JET FLOW. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN