MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 07// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, DESPITE ITS STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CONSOLIDATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS MUIFA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK NORTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. INCREASED OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES RAPIDLY ERODE, THEN DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN