MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE MOST RECENT IMAGERY AT 03/0730Z SHOWS A DEVELOPING SMALL EYE. OVERALL, THERE IS EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, HEDGED HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), BASED ON THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPING EYE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE 03/0153Z ASCAT BULLS-EYE IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TS 05W IS TRACKING QUICKLY POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TS NANMADOL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH (65 KNOTS) WITHIN THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. DUE TO THE LIKELY EYE FORMATION, THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PEAK INTENSITY, WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN THE TAU 0 AND TAU 12 FORECAST POSITIONS. AN ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER COOLER SST (26 TO 25C) BY TAU 12 TO TAU 18, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN COAST OF KYUSHU. AFTER TAU 12, TS 05W SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF KYUSHU. AFTER TAU 18, RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS KYUSHU, SHIKOKU AND HONSHU WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 48. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN UNUSUALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR A RE-CURVE SCENARIO LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN