Tropical Storm HAGUPIT Advisory Tue Aug 04

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CLOUD-FILLED 30-35NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 030531Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. DESPITE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM, TY 03W HAS BEEN ABLE TO COCOON ITSELF AND CONSOLIDATE
PRIMARILY DUE TO ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY 03W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
THE COAST OF CHINA NEAR TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER LAND WHILE WEAKENING RAPIDLY.
AFTER TAU 36, TY 03W WILL RECURVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES,
EXPERIENCING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 40 KNOTS), AND
OVER COOL SST (22-24C), WHICH WILL SERVE TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72
WITH THE REMNANTS TRACKING OVER NORTH KOREA. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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