MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED 30-35NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 030531Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. DESPITE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, TY 03W HAS BEEN ABLE TO COCOON ITSELF AND CONSOLIDATE PRIMARILY DUE TO ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY 03W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE COAST OF CHINA NEAR TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER LAND WHILE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. AFTER TAU 36, TY 03W WILL RECURVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, EXPERIENCING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 40 KNOTS), AND OVER COOL SST (22-24C), WHICH WILL SERVE TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 WITH THE REMNANTS TRACKING OVER NORTH KOREA. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN