Tropical Storm KAJIKI Advisory Tue Sep 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS LOCATED OVERTOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021318Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30
KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK FIXES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND HAS FAIR EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 29-30 CELSIUS. TD 16W IS TRACKING
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST AS IT
TRANSITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR LOCATED IN THE BAY OF
BENGAL. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND HUE CITY, VIETNAM
SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 6. ONCE OVER LAND THE TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN FULL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT DISSIPATES. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL THE CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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