Tropical Storm MALOU Advisory Sun Oct 24

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.4N 139.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 150 NM NORTH OF ULITHI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WEST
OF GUAM. A TIMELY 240004Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS INDICATES A MODEST
REGION WITH MOSTLY 20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY BASED ON
THE MSI, ASCAT IMAGE, AND MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FIXES OF
30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TD 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 25W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS AS THE MAIN STEERING FROM THE STR REMAINS TO THE EAST. AT
TAU 48 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM JUST SOUTH OF HONSHU AND
BEGIN TRACKING TO THE EAST WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAWING 25W
IN ITS WAKE. BY TAU 72 TD 25W WILL SPEED UP AND INTENSIFY TO 60
KNOTS AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96 THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT REACHES
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STR AND APPROACH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO THE EAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN AND BEGIN
EXPERIENCING GREATER SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD FROM 45NM AT TAU 12 TO A MAXIMUM OF 150NM BY
TAU 72, LENDING TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW
THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) WITH UKMET AS THE LEFT OUTLIER AND
NAVGEM THE OUTERMOST RIGHT OUTLIER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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